Into Election Week we go. For many, including the British electorate, there will the hope for an end to the Brexit saga.
Live televised debates and Q&A sessions may have ultimately gone in favor of the Opposition Party. But, the lead and the reality of Brexit looks to have given the Tories the lead with just 5-days remaining.
Market confidence going into the weekend remained, in spite of a pullback in the Pound against the Greenback. The pullback was data-driven rather than election sentiment-driven, or so it seemed.
We had seen the Pound hit choppy waters ahead of key live televised debates and last Friday was no exception.
With the U.S President on his way back to the U.S, there was little interference to trouble the markets.
So, as things stand…
The Opinion Polls
After a narrowing in support for the Tories, the Pound’s rise to 7-month highs was vindicated if the polls are anything to go by.
Polls,” data-reactid=”20″ type=”text”>According to the latest Polls,
The latest bookmakers’ odds saw some minor changes from late last week.
Oddschecker,” data-reactid=”40″ type=”text”>According to Oddschecker,
With the Lib Dems continuing to struggle, the odds of a hung parliament moved from 5/2 to 11/4. This came off the back of a widening from 2/1 to 5/2 mid-week.
st week of November.” data-reactid=”54″ type=”text”>UK bookmakers had the odds of a hung parliament at 5/4 in the 1st week of November.
In spite of the uncertainty of Election Day, the Bookies are going for an all-out Tory win…
The opinion polls and the bookmakers continue to have the Tories as the likely victors in next Thursday’s election.
Electoral Calculus has also continued to predict a Tory Party majority this time around. The predictions had raised some uncertainty ahead of the weekend. The latest predictions, however, may well alleviate some of that uncertainty.” data-reactid=”58″ type=”text”>Electoral Calculus has also continued to predict a Tory Party majority this time around. The predictions had raised some uncertainty ahead of the weekend. The latest predictions, however, may well alleviate some of that uncertainty.
It was a spectacular week for the Pound last week. Well, at least for those looking for a run at $1.40 levels and a resounding Tory Party victory.
A return to $1.31 levels and 7-month highs came in spite of the markets having been badly bitten twice before.
Back in 2016, the EU Referendum caused mayhem that resulted in margin calls closing out a large number of smaller brokerages.
In 2017, Theresa May took a gamble that left the Tories with a minority government that ultimately ended any chance of delivering Brexit.
The Brexit deadlock was not only frustrating for the EU and Britain but also for the global financial markets.
We may not have seen the Pound return to the post-EU Referendum flash-crash low of $1.19048, but, we did see sub-$1.20 levels back in September.
Johnson’s return to British politics and easing into Number 10 has been the Pound’s key support mechanism.
Not only did he manage to renegotiate a Brexit deal but, he also managed to get Parliament to vote in favor of the deal.
There could be more upside going into Thursday’s election if the polls, predictions, and odds continue to demonstrate a return to supremacy for the Tories…
It still leaves a long way down, if voters defy the odds, however. Could we see some jitters ahead of the big day?
article was originally posted on FX Empire” data-reactid=”92″ type=”text”>This article was originally posted on FX Empire
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